Bitcoin price analysis: Bitcoin / U.S Dollar

So today we saw a second attempt of the bulls to break this heavy resistance zone around the 7500/7800, but again it failed. There was some heaving shorting going on at Bitmex today, selling volume kept popping in and when the price was getting to close at to the breakout some 2 mil and 4 mil sell orders were thrown in to keep control of this market.

I am quite convinced it’s the same people who have been playing these games for a few months now AND the same people who (tried) to do it at the 6800 a week ago. But they clearly failed that time, because buying volume was much higher. 2 reasons, it was Monday (working day) and it of course the price much lower (so less risk) than it is now. Buying here needs much more confidence of course. Since Alts are not backing up  the bullish sentiment, it’s more difficult of course to attract buyers into the current price levels.

This manipulated move we saw today can have to 2 options
– just to much people taking profit here AND bears just shorting too much and the market is not ready for a break of the resistance
– this was just a long shake out, to scare weak bulls out of their long positions and to continue up without them

In the bullish scenario there is still room for a drop to around 7100 even, something that could happen should not be seen as a sell off right away. Positive note for the bulls at the moment, they keep the price close to the resistance and because of that their showing they are not yet ready to give up. So the longer we stay at the 7400/7500 levels, the more confidence the bulls will probably get, to finally push through that resistance.

At the moment we are getting some confirmation of this scenario, thats because the price got bought around the 7350 level again, even though the dump was so massive. It shows that it either was just a plan (long shake out as i mentioned before) or bulls are not scared at all and just start to buy again like nothing happened and are happy they got a second chance to get in around these prices again.

But, the price is still moving in a bear flag zone, so we still need to be aware. Next to that, we need to see some improvement and confidence in the Alts. We need that to have more bullish sentiment in this market which can create more confidence for buyers to get in again AND of course to create what the whole crypto market is build on, FOMO.

So at the moment, the mid-term bullish scenario is slightly in favor IMO -0.06% , but only slightly. We just need to show some patience and see what will happend the next few days.

Previous analysis

Bulls are showing some sings of life, just lack of conviction

CONCLUSIONOkay, one good thing at the moment, that bear flag i talked about, is to big at the moment to be considered a flag. But bearish thing is, so far it has just been a retest of the former upwards channel. So no clear sign yet, unless bulls can push it back into that channel again, otherwise we could see a retest of the 7350ish

snapshot

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